Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak.

Calendar-year inflation forecasts from Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants typically start near 2% and then ...

U.S. net international migration (NIM) grew at historically high rates over the past several years. An update of earlier San Francisco Fed analysis (Duzhak 2024), using new and revised data on the ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

Our new data page, CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services, details the evolution of inflation using the consumer ...

We examine the impact of systematic media reporting on household inflation expectations, focusing on how selective news coverage influences household responses to inflation news. In a model where ...

We document key stylized facts about the time-series trends and cross-sectional distributions of AI pricing and study its ...

Fifteen months of new data since May 2023 continue to track closely along the path of a fitted nonlinear Phillips curve. This confirms earlier work that portrays the nonlinear empirical relationship ...

An open economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is developed for Belize with the objective of identifying the main factors behind the volatility in output growth. A MarkovSwitching VAR ...